Upside Down Mortgage

Archive for the ‘Housing Bubble’ Category

Housing Bubble In Canada

Question: Was there a property bubble in Canada and Australia?

I have the impression, right or wrong, that there hasn't been an economic downturn in these two countries to the same extent as in the US and elsewhere. What's the real story then? Have the banks been bailed out in Canada and Australia and increases in unemployment and falls in house prices been experienced? Thanks for the info.

Answer: Our banks weren't too much affected in Australia due to strict lending regulations, and our four biggest banks are now 4 of only 11 AAA rated in the world, so we didn't get problems to the same degree as elsewhere. The government guaranteed savings to provide extra confidence. Our economy was very strong before the crisis, our budget was in surplus and interest rates had been raised very high to slow the economy down.

Once the crisis hit interest rates were dropped rapidly, so we aren't in as bad a position now as elsewhere. We also have had fiscal stimulus packages. Exports have dropped, and that is our main problem. Retirement savings have also been lost in the share market. House prices have dropped a bit in some cities, and unemployment has risen a little, but overall we are better off than elsewhere.

Barney Frank Created the Housing Bubble

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Housing Bubble Depression

KEEP A JOURNAL OF THESE TIMES! March 6, 2009

Ten years ago I wrote a column with a similar title, saying "Someday your grandchildren will become excited about a future bull market, and you'll certainly want to tell them about the Great Bull Market of the 1990's. But you'll need considerable proof or they won't believe you. So keep a journal; about how wild the frenzy is to own tech and Internet stocks at any price, of how IPO's of unknown startups shoot up 200% in a week, of how America Online, still trying to make a profit, is valued at more than the combined value of Delta Airlines, Federal Express, Texaco, Raytheon, Litton Industries, Colgate Palmolive, Union Carbide, Pepsico, Hertz Corp, J.C. Penney, and Sears. And be sure to include this week's news that brokerage firm Donaldson, Lufkin, and Jenrette has opened "trading kiosks" halfway down several ski slopes at Vail, Colorado, so skiers can stop on their way down to check on their stocks, make trades, and then continue down the slope."

As I said at the time, if that was not a mania and a bubble, then the definition of those terms would surely have to be re-written.

Shortly thereafter we saw the severe 2000-2002 bear market, in which the S&P 500 lost 50% of its value and the Nasdaq, home of most of the tech and Internet stocks, lost 76% of its value.

We then saw the 2002-2007 bull market that carried the Dow and S&P 500 all the way back up to their peaks of early 2000, (but not the Nasdaq, which recovered less than half of its losses).

Then we saw the bursting of another bubble, this time in housing, and the current even more severe bear market in stocks, which has dropped the stock market below its lows of the 2000-2002 bear market, in fact back to its levels of 1997.

Yes, it has been historical times.

Someday, just as our grandparents and great-grandparents told us about the great crash of 1929-32, we will be telling our grandchildren the stories of 2008 and 2009. And again, you may need proof if they are to believe you. So once again I say keep a journal of these times.

Otherwise they may not believe for instance that in 2009 a share of one of the largest bank conglomerates in the world, CitiGroup, could be bought for $1, less than they charge for a withdrawal from one of their ATM machines, a hundred shares for a hundred bucks; or that a share of G.E., which just two years before was being honored as the best run company in the world, could be had for the price of a Big-Mac burger. Or that shares of once mighty General Motors, of which it was said for several generations that "As goes General Motors so goes the nation," could be had for less than a cup of coffee, except that no one wanted them since the company said it was probably headed for bankruptcy. (Let's hope the old saying that as goes GM so goes the nation no longer has any truth to it, since for generations when GM was doing well the nation was doing well, and when GM struggled, so did the nation. GM heading for bankruptcy?).

Meanwhile, you'll also want to tell your grandchildren how, as has happened often over the last 100 years, once again in 2008 and 2009 banks and brokerage firms were under investigation by Congress and regulators, trying to figure out how their greed and risk-taking again got out of control, how their problems again threatened the collapse of the entire financial system and economy, how many went under before it was over; how the market collapse had Ponzi scheme crooks again coming out of the woodwork; while economic conditions were downright scary.

When we tell them the story, our grandchildren will likely ask what the difference was between the risk-taking banks, and the risk-taking speculators in the Internet bubble, or the housing bubble. We'll tell them that one of the biggest differences was that, as usual the banks and Wall Street firms risked and lost other people's money.

Yes, we are living in historic times that will be analyzed and critiqued for generations to come.

We will come out of it, at this point probably sooner rather than later (with 12 years of the previous excesses already taken out of the stock market).

But how that will be done is still the unknown and unwritten story.

Sy Harding publishes the financial website www.StreetSmartReport.com" target="_blank">www.streetsmartreport.com">www.StreetSmartReport.com and a free daily Internet blog at www.SyHardingblog.com" target="_blank">www.syhardingblog.com">www.SyHardingblog.com. In 1999 he authored Riding the Bear - How To Prosper In the Coming Bear Market. His new book is Beat the Market the Easy Way! - Proven Seasonal Strategies Double Market's Performance!

About the Author:

Sy Harding is CEO of Asset Management Research Corp., author of 1999's Riding the Bear and 2007's Beat the Market the Easy Way, editor of www.StreetSmartReport.com, and www.SyHardingblog.com.

Source - Keep A Journal Of These Times! March 6, 2009

Housing Bubble vs. Great Depression

Housing Bubble California

Question: Where is California Real Estate at with the Bubble Effect?

Please inform me of this matter or how this is going. Is there any estimate of what year the houses around the coastal/bay areas will be as affordable as a home in Texas?

Answer: I doubt that they will ever be as affordable as a home in Texas. There are more people here, and less land to build on, so the demand for homes is higher, so the price will probably never come down to Texas levels. It may level off some, but then it will probably start creeping back up, although prices may never recover to the bubble days.

Dr. Housing Bubble - Real Homes of Genius